The 12 finalists in this ninth season of Fox's top-rated "American Idol" take the stage tonight at 7 on Channel 6.

As in previous seasons, I'm handicapping the finals. My track record has been pretty good. I thought Carrie Underwood, Fantasia Barrino and Jordin Sparks would go all the way. A few of my picks made it to second place. I was wrong on Danny Gokey, of course, since he ended up in third place.

So I've divided the finalists into four groups, for my guesses. And, yes, they are just guesses.

The doomed: This first group has little chance to through the next couple weeks. While at least one of them has the vocal chops, none of them have the personality or individuality that will make them survive the next few viewer votes.

• Aaron Kelly, 16, of Sonestown, Pa. He's at the low end of the age requirement, and is among the weakest singers. Don't get attached to him.
• Paige Miles, 24, Naples, Fla., She comes across younger than she is. Her performance of Charlie Chaplin's "Smile"  last week should have sent her home. But she lived to last another week, at least.
• Katie Stevens, 17, of Middlebury, Conn. The best singer in this bunch, she looks like she's auditioning for the high school musical. If she'd waited a year or two, she might just be a contender.

Won't get too far: Each of the singers in this group has talent -- just not enough to win it all or even make it into the final three.

• Andrew Garcia, 24, of Moreno Valley, Calif. Once a front-runner, he's lost his mojo over the past couple weeks, and now has the scent of death around him. 
• Casey James, 27, Fort Worth, Texas. Not untalented, he was scarred by judge Kara DioGuardi's swooning. Clearly benefiting from female votes, that won't last forever.
• Tim Urban, 20, Duncanville, Texas. The lovable mop-top in the group was a surprise addition to the top 24 when one was disqualified. He just doesn't have the polish to last for too long. Then again, he shouldn't have made it this far.

Possible surprises: A couple good week and some voting surprises -- which happen ever year -- could launch one of these into the final three.

• Lacey Brown, 24, Amarillo, Texas. Talented and distinctive, she's not automatically in the top tier. But given the right circumstances, she could hang on longer than anybody thought.
• Didi Benami, 23, Knoxville, Tenn. She started off looking like she'd be sent home early, but  has gotten stronger though the weeks. If that keeps up, who knows?
• Lee Dewyze, 23, Mount Prospect, Ill. The biggest thing working against this talented singer is that he's a guy. This feels like the year of a female "Idol," and the judges agree.

The last ones standing:

• Crystal Bowersox, 24, Elliston, Ohio. She's been the frontrunner since early in the competition, and there's no sign of fading. She has had health problems that have already affected the show (the guys sang first one week after her brief hospitalization.) She'll have to keep her strength up during the next two months.
• Siobhan Magnus, 19, Cape Cod, Mass. Quirky and with a distinctive voice, she's right on Bowersox's tail. A final competition between the two of 'em wouldn't be a surprise.
• Michael Lynche, 26, St. Petersburg, Fla. He commands the stage every time he steps onto it. If this wasn't the year of the "Idol" women, he might be the frontrunner. As it is, he's likely to make it into the final three; and a win isn't impossible.

My guess for the winner: It still looks like Bowersox will take it all. She walked into the competition as a fully-formed personality, and hasn't made a misstep. She exudes confidence as a performer and the only chink in her armor came last week when she appeared shocked at the singers sent home.

This is a competition with lots of losers and only one winner. She may have to toughen her skin -- as well as watch her health -- over the next couple months.

Here's her performance from last week:

Talking "Idol" on the radio: I'll join "Murphy and Meg in the Morning" shortly after 7 a.m. Wednesday on WRIT-FM (95.7) to talk about the 12 "Idol" finalists.