The fantasy football season is approaching. The magazines are hitting newsstands. Player values are rising and falling. Soon enough, fantasy owners will scramble to find the best resources to answer all their questions and get them one step closer to that fantasy title.
This is where we come in and sweep you off your feet; well, at least that's the intent. Sportsbuff and Rapiddraft.com want to help you get that fantasy title.
Below you will find volume one of our Fantasy Football Draft Guide. It contains answers to some of the current burning questions that are on the minds of many owners, a "Strategy Session," some NFL trivia and a grand "Fantasy Showdown" finale featuring Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre.
We also want to make sure that you, the reader, are involved as well, so we're taking questions at the e-mail address listed at the end of this column. Some that are answered will be featured in the following volume. So send those questions.
Let's get started.
Burning Questions Answered
We gathered RapidDraft.com fantasy experts Eric Huber, Matt Schauf, Mike Beacom and Frank Mazzola to answer some common questions heading into the season.
After Adrian Peterson, who is one player that is a must have in the first round in both standard and PPR formats?
Huber: In a standard format I'm going with LaDainian Tomlinson. He still can do it all and is a warrior when it comes to staying on the field. The best part is that he'll most likely drop past the top five.
In a points-per-reception (PPR) format, I'm targeting wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. I know it sounds crazy, but the numbers don't lie. He may have had the best postseason of any wide receiver in NFL history--- 30 receptions, 546 yards, and 7 touchdowns in four games. If you calculate that out for a full regular season he would finish with 120 receptions, 2184 yards, and 28 touchdowns.
Schauf: There's no such thing as a must-have in any round, especially in the first, where things will only vary so much. I always like to pick as close to the end of the round as possible, and that's even more true this year, with the talent so diffuse.
Not only do I know I'll get a good player the first time through, but picking late gives me another quick selection in Round 2. From there, I'll most likely end up with either two top backs or a very good back and one of the top three receivers. At the top of the board, I like Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson as the top four with Peterson -- with order depending on the scoring system.
Beacom: I'd have to say LaDainian Tomlinson. Everyone seems to want him to go away, but he still catches passes and scores touchdowns. And he should be healthy this year.
Mazzola: Matt Forte would be my choice for a must-have first rounder in any format. He has no committee situation to deal with, is a skilled pass-catcher and, with Jay Cutler on board, defenses will no longer be able to key on him.
Who will be the top fantasy quarterback in 2009--- Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Aaron Rodgers?
Huber: For the sake of who my primary audience is I would love to say Rodgers here, but the reality is that Drew Brees and Tom Brady are way too good and have way too many weapons to not finish one and two if healthy for a full season. Of the two I'm taking Drew Brees all day, because I know he's going to be consistent week in and week out and isn't coming back from a major injury.
Schauf: Assuming everyone stays healthy, it'll be Brady. Cut 15 touchdowns off his 2007 total and he still would have led the league last year.
Beacom: Let me answer the question this way... of this group, I'd take Manning. He is the safest pick in the draft -- at any position.
Mazzola: Drew Brees is the current king of the mountain and, if Marques Colston and Reggie Bush can play more than they did last year, I see no reason why he won't continue to be so.
Under what circumstances should fantasy owners invest a high round pick on top tight end Jason Witten? Who will be the best value tight end in 2009 fantasy drafts?
Huber: In some of the latest drafts I've seen there always seems to be a big wide receiver run between the middle of round two to about the end of round three. If this happens in your draft and you're left with not many good options at receiver don't be afraid to snatch up Witten in the fourth round if he's still available. With Terrell Owens departed I suspect Witten will have a similar season as he did in 2007 (96 receptions, 1145 yards, seven touchdowns).
As for the best value, I'm going with Kellen Winslow Jr. Word out of Bucs camp is that Winslow Jr. will be the focal point of the offense heading in to the 2009 season, which could mean that he returns to 2007 form if he stays injury-free.
Schauf: It's all about how the draft shakes out. I don't target specific players, especially in the early rounds, but rather let the value lead me to my pick. If I get a point per reception, though, Witten becomes a good value somewhere in the fourth round. The single best value for where he tends to go might well be Chicago's Greg Olsen, though good value exists even later in players such as Zach Miller, Heath Miller and Brent Celek as well.
Beacom: Depends on what you mean by "high round." Witten will have a strong year, but I'm not of the opinion that the T.O. departure will help (or hurt) him this year. He's steady. The best value? I like Tony Scheffler.
Mazzola: A high pick for Witten this year is a smart gamble as he is Tony Romo's most trusted receiver. He should be targeted after the elite wide receivers are off the board. As for a value tight end, I like Oakland's Zach Miller. His star is on the rise and, if Jamarcus Russell can continue to improve, he should be a lock for top 10 production once again.
Which three players do you feel will be the most overvalued?
Huber: For me, three players that could fit the bill include wide receiver Greg Jennings, and running backs Ronnie Brown and Knowshon Moreno.
While Jennings is a great player his best value is not within the top five receivers in any format like some have been taking him at already. And now that he has his contract he'll have one less thing to motivate him.
Brown is coming off a very inconsistent season where he ran for 50 yards or less nine times. His ADP has him being drafted late in the second round. I would wait until at least late in the third to even take a chance on the 2008 three-game wonder.
And Moreno is a rookie in a crowded backfield who has a ton to prove, yet I've been seeing him go in the third round in some drafts -- a place where no rookie runner should be taken; unless of course his first name is Barry.
Schauf: Plenty of folks seem to want to believe that Braylon Edwards' 2008 never happened. The 16 touchdowns were awesome in 2007, but the guy was terrible last year. Say what you want about his quarterback situation, but Andre Johnson led the league in catches with Sage Rosenfels stepping in for five games. Calvin Johnson was excellent with little help. Antonio Bryant, Dwayne Bowe and Carolina's Steve Smith also produced despite quarterback questions. I don't think Edwards belongs in the first four rounds.
As for my other two: Matt Schaub is a popular pick so far despite the fact that he has yet to play more than 11 games as a starter. He was wildly inconsistent, too, when healthy. Felix Jones is an intriguing player, but he's also part of a three-man backfield and won't even get goal-line carries. I'm not interested in him before the rounds hit double digits.
Beacom: Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams and Calvin Johnson. Too much work last year will result in a possible Turner burnout. Williams won't come close to last year's production. And fantasy owners will confuse Johnson's talent with his poor surroundings. He'll struggle to provide a satisfying encore.
Mazzola: DeAngelo Williams, Tom Brady and Lance Moore. If Jonathan Stewart is healthy, then there's no way Williams scores 20 times again. Brady is coming off major surgery and odds of him recreating 2007 success are long indeed. And Moore simply was just in the right place at the right time last year.
Which three players do you feel will be the most undervalued?
Huber: This "On" is easy. Steve Slaton, Marques Colston and Kyle Orton coincidentally (seriously) are my three here.
Slaton has put on nine pounds of muscle, and is on an offense that is on the rise. Most fantasy owners may not even consider him a first round pick, even though his numbers from 2008 equate to one.
Colston is rumored to be 100 percent healthy, and a healthy Colston plus possibly the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL should equal very high production. His value is as a top ten receiver, but he could finish in the top five.
And the only thing I can say about Orton is that he's in the right system, and as long as Brandon Marshall sticks around could easily be a top 10 quarterback when the 2009 season closes.
Schauf: I like Trent Edwards around the same level as Schaub, Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, but he can be had much later. I'm no fan of Cedric Benson, but getting a starting back of his caliber in rounds 8-10 as a fantasy backup is clearly good value. Finally, I seem to be the only one backing Torry Holt at all this year, but I will gladly take him as a low-end No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy receiver in every league if people will keep letting me.
Beacom: LaDainian Tomlinson, Torry Holt and Ronnie Brown. Even at his worst Tomlinson was pretty good. Fantasy owners gave up on Holt too early. And look at Brown's '08 numbers and then look at where most are projecting him to get drafted.
Mazzola: Leon Washington, David Garrard and Anthony Gonzalez. The Jets will utilize the run extensively this year to take pressure off the quarterback, which could make Washington even better. Garrard now has sure-handed pro bowler Torry Holt to throw to. And the Gonzo of Indy could easily be part of the "Top 20 Wide Receivers" conversation before too long with Mr. Manning throwing him rockets.
OK, so you have the number 10 pick and aren't exactly happy about it. Of course you know that the top five running backs on your cheat sheet are going to be gone, and being at the back half of a serpentine snake draft will force you to guess a little more than you would like. What do you do?
If this was 2006, I would probably be telling you to go ahead and take two solid running backs, because that's where the value resides. But this is 2009, and there has been a shift of power in the late first and in to the second round. This is where it gets dicey and involves taking a detailed look at your league scoring. After you do that you can follow the simple instructions listed below.
If you're in a standard scoring league that rewards points for just yardage and touchdowns, go ahead and take your best available running back or wide receiver, and around the bend of the snake do the same as the first round.
If you're in a points-per-reception league that rewards points for every reception by any player, you should be taking any combination of these four players: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Randy Moss. Don't ask why, just do it!
Now, I'm sure you're asking yourself why would I want to take two receivers in the first two rounds when my next pick isn't until at least pick 34, right? Well, after being involved with several mock and expert league drafts I can tell you first hand that if you don't take at least one wide receiver you will be playing from behind.
Why?
As noted above, in almost every draft in 2009 there will be some kind of a wide receiver run between picks 2.07 and 3.09 that will leave you with mid-round value to choose from at 34, and I don't think you want that, especially if playing in a PPR format.
The bottom line here is that if you're positioned at the back half of the drafting order don't automatically assume that you have to take two running backs to make up for the value you missed out in the front half of the first round. Go ahead and take your wide receiver(s), because with the way drafts have been panning out thus far, if you don't, you may just be drafting at the front half next season.
Good luck!
NFL Trivia (Answers will be presented in Volume 2)
Which NFC East running back led NFL rushers (100+ carries) in yards per carry in 2008?
A) Brian Westbrook
B) Derrick Ward
C) Clinton Portis
D) Tashard Choice
Which accurate passer led the NFL in completion percentage in 2008?
A) Chad Pennington
B) Phillip Rivers
C) Peyton Manning
D) Kurt Warner
Which Packers running back recorded 2,933 career rushing yards and 30 career total touchdowns?
A) Kenneth Davis
B) John Brockington
C) Edgar Bennett
D) Eddie Lee Ivery
NFC North Fantasy Showdown: Aaron Rodgers vs. Brett Favre
Last season in Round One of Rodgers vs. Favre, fantasy owners found out who truly was the better fantasy quarterback after an off-season filled with green and gold turmoil. Well, it's likely to get better in 2009 if Favre returns to the NFC North.
2008 Facts
Favre: The Jets starting quarterback started out the 2008 season with a bang, throwing 20 touchdown passes, and leading his team to an 8-3 record through 12 weeks. However, he stumbled down the stretch, throwing just two touchdown passes and nine of his season total 22 interceptions in the final five games. He finished the season with 3,472 passing yards, and coincidentally enough, his second highest completion percentage of his career (65.7).
Rodgers: The Packers new signal caller was one of the more pleasant, consistent surprises last year in fantasy land. He recorded 10 multiple touchdown games, saw his game QB rating go in to triple digits eight times, and threw for 290+ yards seven times. He also rushed for 207 yards and scored 4 touchdowns. For the season Rodgers finished with 4,038 passing yards; one of six quarterbacks to do so in 2008.
Remember, I'm not trying to find out who the better NFL quarterback will be come 2009; I'm trying to establish who will be the better fantasy quarterback of the two. And in this case the one player that breaks the tie is running back Adrian Peterson.
Think about it: The Vikings' offense revolves around spoon feeding Peterson the football, and bringing in the 40-year old Favre isn't going to change that, no matter how good his arm is still. Peterson is the identity of the Vikings offense and defense, and as long as he stays healthy he's going to get the ball. You could throw Tom Brady in at quarterback and nothing would change. That purple and gold number 28 is the key that ignites the offense, and is also the key to keeping the defense fresh.
2009 Fantasy Forecasts
Brett Favre -- 3370 passing yards, 20 TD, 86.4 QB Rating.
Aaron Rodgers -- 3830 passing yards, 29 TD, 90.4 QB Rating.
Fantasy Question to Ponder
When differentiating between fantasy value and NFL talent which player(s) do you feel is / are the best example(s) of having one and not the other?
We will explore this and more in volume two.
