The final week of the season is upon us. At this point, most fantasy owners are either still crying from the spankings they received -- costing them chunks of change -- or are trembling with nervous excitement as they await their fate this weekend.
No matter what your story is this week, you will be entertained and informed by the final edition of the forecast, with Week 17 random thoughts, 2009 fantasy busts of year and MVPs named, and of course, the Rapiddraft.com AFC and NFC "fantasy" bowl teams.
It's been a great season. Thanks to everyone who has contributed and helped this feature along. And most importantly, thank you to those who have read and liked or hated the fantasy forecast. Without you this "fantasy" wouldn't have made it to the end.
Good luck.
WEEK 17 RANDOM THOUGHTS
Colts wide receiver Austin Collie, and tight ends not named Clark should be good plays this week against the Bills. Why? Well, they're probably going to be the only Indianapolis pass-catchers to see significant playing time, and of Curtis Painter's 11 passes thrown last week nine of them combined whistled and wobbled in the direction of Collie and the three back-up tight ends; Jacob Tamme, Tom Santi, and Gijon Robinson.
Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno may be a top must start this week. Denver is at home in a must win game against the 31st ranked (rushing yards allowed per game) Chiefs defense. Plus, Kansas City has surrendered 940 net rushing yards in the last four weeks (235 per game), and Moreno ran for 86 yards and scored two touchdowns in Week 13 against the Broncos' division rival.
Jerome Harrison should keep rolling against the Jaguars this week. He's the hot ticket right now, and the Jaguars defense allowed over 5.6 yards per carry to Patriot runners last week.
If you're looking for a sleeper at wide receiver this week, then look no further than the Bears' Devin Aromashodu. Chicago will be at Detroit this week, and the Lions have been gashed for NFL highs in yards per game (265.4) and touchdowns (31). Aromashodu is coming off a big seven catch, 150 yard game this past Monday night and should be in both the Bears' and fantasy owners‘ starting lineups.
Start your Steelers this week. The Miami Dolphins are allowing averages of 345.7 total yards and 24.0 points per game this season, and the Steelers will be playing three hours before one of the teams standing in their way of a playoff berth, the Baltimore Ravens.
The St Louis Rams have allowed a league high 21 rushing touchdowns this season, so if you have Frank Gore, your starting lineup should be covered in drool. In their last showdown in Week 4 the 49ers rolled over the Rams with a 35-0 blowout win, and it was a game that Gore didn't even play in.
Don't be afraid to start Jason Witten and Miles Austin this week. The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed 25 passing touchdowns, but rank eighth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (99.7).
Don't even think about sitting Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, or Sidney Rice this week. They'll be playing the New York Giants at 1:00 PM eastern time, and are still fighting for a first round bye. They need to win and have the Eagles lose, so they'll be playing their hearts out in now what has turned in to a must win game.
Ray Rice could be the best start at running back this week. Yes, the Ravens will be on the road, but it'll be against a Raiders defense that has allowed a 29th best 149.9 rushing yards per game, and an NFL high 21 rushing touchdowns. Plus, with their playoff lives on the line coach Harbaugh will spoon feed his top playmaker the ball in both the running and passing games as much as he can, even when the Ravens go up big.
There will be a few wide receivers playing with chips on their shoulders this week. One of them is Giants reception artist Steve Smith. Smith has been a steady and consistent force for the Giants all season long, and has recorded 11 games of five receptions or more. The worst part is that lining up across the field from him this week could be the Vikings receiver (Sidney Rice) who stole his spot on the NFC Pro Bowl team. And if Smith does indeed go off he would only be helping his division rival, and another pro bowl receiver in the Eagles' Desean Jackson.
There will be plenty of eyes on some Buccaneers and Falcons players this week, including a rookie quarterback who could be a hot start this week. Yes, Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman has had his struggles in his rookie season. However, he's had glorious moments as well, including his last performance against the Falcons where he recorded his highest quarterback rating of the season (118.5) and threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-17 loss.
A key to Freeman having a good game this week will be Antonio Bryant's presence and chemistry with his quarterback. Rumor has it; the two were seen jawing at each other last week after a miscommunication that led to a Darren Sharper interception. Fantasy owners should also keep in mind that Bryant has been battling yet another injury (groin) as of late.
2009 FANTASY MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS
QB -- Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers: His numbers (4,199 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 314 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns) have been phenomenal all season long through the air, and even running with the football. He has scored multiple touchdowns in 11 games and has passed for at least 250 yards ten times. What put him over the top, though, was his 383-yard, four-touchdown (3 passing, 1 rushing) performance against the Steelers in Week 15, a tough draw during a crucial week for most playoff fantasy teams.
RB -- Tennessee's Chris Johnson: Forget the fact that Johnson is just 128 rushing yards short of 2,000. The Titans' speed back has recorded ten straight 100-yard games on the ground and has tallied 2,355 total yards to go along with 14 total touchdowns. He has literally carried fantasy teams on his legs since Week 6.
WR -- Houston's Andre Johnson: Johnson is the NFL's leading receiver with 1,504 receiving yards, has scored nine touchdowns and is tied for fourth with 95 receptions. However, these numbers are not the only reason why he is a fantasy MVP. In the last three weeks, Johnson has caught 11 receptions for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns, nine for 196 and five for 71 yards with a touchdown.
2009 FANTASY BUSTS
QB -- Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck: Big things were expected from Hasselbeck this season, especially with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh at wide receiver. Thirteen starts later, the Seahawks' quarterback has just as many touchdowns as interceptions (16), and is averaging just 219 yards per game. Hasselbeck has also recorded five games of less than 200 passing yards and four games without a touchdown pass.
RB -- Oakland's Darren McFadden: Yes, McFadden missed some of the middle part of the season, but he still played in 11 games. In those 11 games he averaged 53 a game and scored just one touchdown. He has been the definition of the term "bust" since he was drafted in the first round in 2008.
WR -- Minnesota's Bernard Berrian: Berrian was almost every fantasy owner's sexy sleeper pick once diva Brett Favre weaseled his way to Minnesota. Little did most know, Sidney Rice was going to be No. 4's hot read in 2009. As for Berrian, his 53 receptions, 568 receiving yards, and four touchdowns aren't exactly disgraceful numbers. But considering where most slotted him on their draft boards, he's definitely a major fantasy bust.
2009 FANTASY BOWL SELECTIONS
The fantasy bowl selections were generated based on the number of RapidDraft points each player scored over the course of the first sixteen weeks.
AFC
RapidDraft points in parentheses
QB -- Indianapolis' Peyton Manning (327), Houston's Matt Schaub (319).
RB -- Tennessee's Chris Johnson (383), Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew (319), Baltimore's Ray Rice (315), Miami's Ricky Williams (247).
WR -- Houston's Andre Johnson (304), New England's Randy Moss (286) and Wes Welker (280), Denver's Brandon Marshall (280).
TE -- Indianapolis' Dallas Clark (258), San Diego's Antonio Gates (230).
K -- Tennessee's Rob Bironas (170), San Diego's Nate Kaeding (165).
D -- Denver Broncos (162), Baltimore Ravens (158).
NFC
QB -- Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (372), New Orleans' Drew Brees (347).
RB -- Minnesota's Adrian Peterson (318), San Francisco's Frank Gore (259), St Louis' Steven Jackson (236), Green Bay's Ryan Grant (226).
WR -- Philadelphia's Desean Jackson (280), Dallas' Miles Austin (279), Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald (270), Atlanta's Roddy White (256).
TE -- San Francisco's Vernon Davis (228), Philadelphia's Brent Celek (204).
K -- Philadelphia's Davis Akers (178), Minnesota's Ryan Longwell (154).
D -- New Orleans Saints (200), Philadelphia Eagles (188).
FINAL THOUGHT
Before the season I pieced together an article revolving around consistency, and how it sometimes goes overlooked. Now, I suspect that heading in to the 2010 season the tiering of quarterbacks will once again start with Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady, but should those be the signal callers you should be targeting heading in to next season?
After a quick look at the leaders I've discovered that of those who have started in every game this season thus far two have stood above the rest when it comes to consistent performance.
Philip Rivers has been by far the most consistent quarterback. In fifteen starts, Rivers has thrown just nine interceptions and has scored a touchdown in every game; the only quarterback to accomplish this of those who have started every game. He has also had nine multiple touchdown games, and dipped under 200 passing yards just once.
The other is Rodgers which should come as no surprise, especially if you read the "Fantasy MVP" of the forecast already. Rodgers has been strong all season long and has scored a touchdown in all but one game; once again the only quarterback to accomplish this of those who have started in every game. Rodgers has also recorded a season low seven interceptions, tied, coincidentally, with the Favre.
Yes, Brees, Manning and Brady are safe and reliable quarterbacks in most games, but for the likely asking price I'm taking my chances on Rivers and Rodgers in 2010.
