Brewers face some tough questions

{image1}First, a word to traditionally dubious Brewers fans: spring training results aren't always meaningless. Kansas City rode a 19-10 spring record in 2003 to a hot start and a solid season. Conversely, the 2003 Brewers struggled to an 11-21 mark in Arizona, opened the season 0-6 and never reached .500 all year.

But while the Brewers close in on a possible (and unofficial) Cactus League title this March, it's almost time for the real thing. The Arizona sun has been fun, but the games begin to count starting Monday in St. Louis.

When spring training began, I tried to answer a few questions about the upcoming season. And as March progressed, I came up with a whole lot more.

Can Ben Sheets win more than 11 games?

The Brewers ace enters his fourth season with a career record of 33-39 and an ERA of 4.42, which are not exactly ace-like numbers. Pitching coach Mike Maddux is working with Sheets on a changeup, a pitch the 25-year old failed to embrace in his first three years. The goal is to allow the staff's best pitcher to compete on days he doesn't have his best stuff. Unfortunately, he hasn't had his best stuff too often this spring. Brewers fan will continue to wait for Sheets' breakthrough season, but he simply may not be the 20-game win stud everyone hoped.

Is Dan Kolb this year's Luis Vizcaino?

After a surprising 2002, righty set-up man Vizcaino blew up last year (4-3, 6.39). Kolb emerged from the shadows to save 21 games late last year and signed a $1.5 million deal this winter. Will he stumble in the same fashion Vizcaino did last year? Kolb is working on a slider to complement his upper-90s fastball, and general manager Doug Melvin has had a great deal of success in personal reclamation projects. But after a spring cut short by nagging injuries, it's not a given he'll pick up where he left off. I'll feel better if Kolb converts his first three save chances.

What about the rest of the bullpen?

Beyond Kolb and Vizcaino, the bullpen figures to be comprised of some the following: Dave Burba, Adrian Hernandez, Jeff Bennett, Ben Ford, Brooks Kieschnick, Matt Wise, Victor Santos, Leo Estrella and Chris Michalak. Expect Burba, Hernandez, and Bennett to earn spots. And while it's silly to put too much stock in spring performances, Santos has been very sharp and Kieschnick hasn't walked a man in seven appearances. With Sheets, Doug Davis, Matt Kinney, Wes Obermueller and Chris Capuano, that makes 10 spots of a probable 11- or 12-man staff (Kieschnick's inclusion allows Yost the flexibility of a 12th arm).

While the Brewers were stumbling through the early part of the decade, they always seemed to field a decent bullpen. Last year, that trend abated somewhat, but there is reason for hope due to the variety and ability of the current group.

Can Junior Spivey and Ben Grieve make solid contributions?

Spivey's outspoken reaction upon being traded to Milwaukee has been forgiven. Now, can he hit like he did in 2002 when he made the NL All-Star team? He leads all spring swingers with 8 doubles, which is exactly the type of gap hitting that Melvin wants the team to feature. If he and Scott Podsednik are both on base 36-40 percent of the time (though Ned Yost could drop Spivey to fifth in the lineup), Milwaukee might have a decent offense. But it's far too early to tell.

Grieve never found his power stroke this spring (0 HR, 2 doubles), but the security of knowing he's the everyday right fielder should help his cause as the season wears on. Forget unrealistic visions of 90 RBI, however, and focus on his strikeouts - if he can register his first full, sub-100 K campaign, I expect he'll be a regular contributor.

Is Lyle Overbay the next Mark Grace?

Probably not, though Craig Counsell was the latest to compare his current teammate to his former one. Yes, Overbay is a gap hitter, and, no, he isn't a typical 30-HR corner infielder. But Grace was one of the game's best hitters in the 1990s, a level Overbay isn't likely to approach any time soon. This isn't to say Overbay won't be a good hitter - in nearly 1,500 high minors at bats, he hit .352 and .332 in AA and AAA, respectively - but he'll be learning on the job in 2004. Plus, Grace never struck out more than 56 times in a season; Overbay whiffed 67 times in 254 ABs in Arizona last year.

Where will Keith Ginter, Brady Clark and Bill Hall fit in?

I don't know, exactly, but Ned Yost probably does. Yost and Melvin aren't about to predict a banner win-loss record in 2004, but both like the roster's flexibility, which is epitomized by this trio. Ginter will see time everywhere on the diamond but catcher and center field, and his extra-base pop will earn him at least a start or two a week. Clark's work ethic resonates loudly with Yost, and though he may see less time than he did in 2003, he figures to be valuable again. Hall's great spring (.426, 10 RBI, 6 steals) has many wondering why Counsell is still the starting shortstop. If Hall keeps hitting, he's going to play.

Will the Brewers win more than 68 games?

Now, that's the question. The Cubs and Astros both harbor legitimate World Series aspirations, and the Cardinals are hungry after missing the postseason. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are weak, but both have had their way with Milwaukee since the Brewers' return to the NL. Basically, the Central looks like the NL's best division.

But it's year two under Yost and Melvin, which will make a difference. The offense will struggle to score runs at times, and the pitching is far from established. But winning 70-75 games - maybe 80 if everything breaks just right - isn't out of the question in Milwaukee.

Chicago Tribune MLB beat writer Phil Rogers picked the Brewers and Rangers as candidates to lose 120 games this year (he also picked Shawn Estes to be the NL Comeback Player of the Year...in Colorado). I'll go on record as saying the Brewers won't be that bad. But losing between 85-90 games wouldn't be surprising.