{image1}The Bucks clinched a playoff spot on Sunday, and the NFL Draft is right around the corner. But Monday was Opening Day -- despite two games in Japan last week and another Sunday night in Baltimore stealing some of the excitement -- so what else could we possibly talk about today?

Locally, it probably won't be a memorable season at Miller Park -- at least not if one equates memories with victories. But it could still be a successful one, for a number of reasons -- improving on 2003's 68 wins, possibly finishing at .500, establishing a reliable starting rotation and developing young players like Lyle Overbay and Chad Moeller to name a few.

But it's only April -- in the context of a single season, those are all long-range goals. Instead, let's look at a couple benchmarks that will help track Milwaukee's progress over the first month.

Three Sheets to the win: Opening Day starter Ben Sheets figures to get six starts if he stays on turn (no rainouts, injuries, etc.) throughout April. He'll face the Cardinals and Astros twice and Arizona and Pittsburgh once apiece. If he can win three of those games, April could be the first month of Sheets' best season to date.

It's no secret the Brewers are building the starting rotation around the 25-year-old Louisianan. But Sheets hasn't developed quite as quickly as team brass envisioned three years ago (which is part of the reason that group is no longer team brass). If he can develop an effective changeup, 2004 could be his breakout year. A good first month would help -- two wins in April would be nice, but three could signify big things. However, Sheets was generally awful in Arizona.

Splitting the gaps: The Brewers have 23 games on the schedule in April. When May 1 dawns, check the stats to see how many doubles they've collected in the first month. If they have 41 or more, Doug Melvin and Ned Yost's talk of an extra-base-hitting team may come to fruition.

Why 41? NL teams averaged 1.79 doubles/game last season, so the Brewers -- sans much of last year's home-run power -- need to at least match that average in order to generate runs. If they're at 46, they're in good company -- only St. Louis averaged 2 doubles/game in the NL last year.

Whiff reduction: Nothing has stymied the Brewers' offense over the last few years like strikeouts. This year's lineup -- as I've pointed out in previous columns -- has a lot of inherent strikeout potential, in part due to the four newcomers from Arizona, as well as Ben Grieve.

If the "doubles-for-homers" philosophy is viable, strikeouts will need to be curbed as well (productive outs help make up for those missing bases). The 2003 unit struck out 7.5 times/game. To beat that total through April, the Brewers will need to whiff 172 or fewer times. That may not happen right away, especially with players like Grieve and Lyle Overbay getting accustomed to National League pitching on an everyday basis.

Jenkins' health: Geoff Jenkins missed the last month of 2003 with a broken thumb, and he was laid up for the last week of camp with strep throat. Let's face it -- Jenkins is the Brewers' lone offensive star. He HAS to be on the field consistently for the Brewers to be respectable. If he gets injured early in the year, it won't be a good sign. This doesn't mean panic should set in if he turns his ankle and misses a couple games, but Jenkins needs to emerge from April in good health.

Sophomore year: Scott Podsednik was nothing short of a revelation last year, and all Brewers fans are eagerly trying to predict who "this year's Podsednik" will be. How about Podsednik? The center fielder seemingly didn't let a great season go to his head, and he continues to work as hard as ever, according to camp reports.

He's also integral to the team's offense (along with Jenkins). Podsednik's OBP was .379 last year, a solid stat despite walking just 56 times. If he's in the .360-.380 range on May 1, Milwaukee fans can rest assured a sophomore slump will be avoided.

Rough start: The early schedule is practically unfair for a team that struggled to a 9-20 start in 2003. In its first 20 games, Milwaukee plays St. Louis and Houston seven times each, and San Francisco and Arizona three times apiece. The slate eases at that point, with two series against Cincinnati and one each against Pittsburgh and the Mets in the next four.

But the first 20 games could be rough. The Cardinals, Astros, Giants and D-Backs all have playoff aspirations, so expect the Brewers to take their lumps. They just need to survive. 10-10 would be great, but 9-11 or 8-12 would suffice.

From the hope springs eternal department? A plus-.500 record after 20 games may not initiate a playoff run, but it would be a fantastic start for a team that could use the confidence.

Self-promotion: I've started a Brewers blog on my personal Web site. Check it out at http://timgut.hostrocket.com/brewblog/blogger.html. At some point, I'll open it up to other contributors, assuming interest is there (Note: the rest of the site remains "under construction.").