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The real story in the flurry of governor's race polls thus far in the race: How poorly Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle is consistently polling against Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and Congressman Mark Green.

Many different polls have been released in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race so far: Online polls, campaign polls, conservative think tank polls, independent and media polls.

The media have largely framed the polling in a misleading light as being positive for Doyle, and they've covered the polls in an episodic and uneven manner, not a contextual one. Evidence of the frame: Appleton Post-Crescent: "Most Voters Support Doyle." Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "Doyle Leading His Opponents in 2nd Poll" and "Poll Puts Doyle Ahead in the Gubernatorial Race." Janesville Gazette: "Doyle Leads Potential GOP Rivals." And so on.

Here's the reality check: In each poll, the governor has never topped 50 percent, and in some polls he's been in the margin of error against one or both Republicans.

Average every number he's gotten in every poll so far since September, excluding campaign-sponsored polls, and Doyle's polled an average of 46.46 percent. Tip off: His campaign hasn't exactly been running around shouting about these polls from the treetops and his campaign megaphone, blogger Bill Christofferson, has spent more time arguing that they're not relevant than trumpeting that they help Doyle.

Granted, the polls have different methodologies. But that's exactly the point: no matter the methodology, the governor does not bust the 50 percent ceiling. And if 46.46 percent is the number he's going to pull in '06, it's unlikely to be enough.

Doyle supporters will say the polls are too far out to matter. But that's the point. The 46.46 percent average is a crucial benchmark, especially because it's this far out in the race, when so many more people know Doyle than know Walker or Green and an incumbent should be polling much higher.

That's the real story. Doyle's approval ratings have also hovered at 46 percent in several polls, less than other incumbents in Wisconsin, an ominous warning sign. He's not polling well in the Milwaukee suburbs. And polls have found citizens are not optimistic about whether the state is on the right track. The National Journal recently ranked Doyle as the 4th most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country.

For an incumbent governor, the polls, taken together, show remarkable weakness. This is especially true because Republicans nationally are taking such a beating. George W. Bush's approval ratings are in the toilet, Scooter Libby and Tom DeLay are under indictment, and the news is focusing on negativity in Iraq. An incumbent Democratic governor should expect to take advantage of anti-Republicanism. But still this has not budged Doyle's numbers.

Doyle can't seem to get over the 46 percent hump as governor. It's the number that sticks to him like Brett Favre's No. 4 and Robin Yount's No. 19 -- only in a less positive light.

That 46 percent was enough last time to put Doyle in the governor's mansion, but there was a big difference then: The presence of a stronger-than-normal third party candidate, Ed Thompson, who may have done for Republican Scott McCallum what Ross Perot did to George H.W. Bush in 1992.

But this time around, the 10 percent who voted for Ed Thompson will be up for grabs, presuming Doyle hangs onto his portion and doesn't pick up many from McCallum's side. Doyle also needs to consider that his Republican opponent, McCallum, was widely regarded as weak, filling out the term of former longtime Gov. Tommy Thompson.

One would think that the power of incumbency would have boosted Doyle's support since then. But, au contraire, Doyle may have more trouble locking down his base this time around. At least one prominent union and other hardcore Democrats are ballistic over Doyle's obvious pushing of Kathleen Falk into the attorney general's race, over his slashing and privatizing of the state workforce, and over his partial co-opting of Republican ideas such as property tax freezes. The base is splitting.

Taken together, the polls show that Doyle has still not sealed the deal with that elusive 10 percent. Walker and Green haven't either, of course, but they are not incumbents and neither one has yet begun to really define himself with the public statewide. In fact, the polls indicate that many people remain undecided in the race and don't even know who the Republican candidates are yet. They do know Doyle, and enough of them aren't persuaded. So, even against still virtual unknowns, the governor is not breaking that 46 percent.

The task for Doyle will be to define Green and Walker in the public's mind before they define themselves (I don't think the Republicans will take the gloves off against each other, thus doing Doyle's dirty work). And the other task will be for the governor to spend those casino millions boosting his own favorability ratings.

Meanwhile, the media should start handling polls in a more uniform manner and with some context.

Even within the same organizations, some campaign polls get covered and others don't. Some reporters get the fact that candidates within the margin of error are actually all tied while others mislead readers by stating that someone or another is ahead when they are really in the margin of error too. And the media handle interactive polls in different ways; sometimes they are covered, sometimes they are not. Sometimes they are covered through a negative frame implying they are not credible; in other cases, they are just covered.

For example, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel covered an earlier Zogby poll that showed the candidates in the margin of error but not a more recent Zogby poll that showed the candidates in the margin of error. (Zogby's online polls have been attacked by critics, although the Zogby pollsters argue that they accurately predicted the winner in 85 percent of states polled in the 2004 presidential election. They also correctly predicted that Wisconsin would go to Kerry.)

I didn't count two Walker campaign polls in the Doyle average. On April 18-21, a Walker campaign poll conducted by a respected polling organization found that Walker polled 14 percent over Green, while 49 percent said they "wanted to give a new person a chance" over Doyle. On Sept. 18-20, Walker said, new campaign polling showed that 51 percent thought a new person should get a chance in the governor's seat and Walker polled 13 percent ahead of Green. Green's campaign attacked those numbers.

The other polls:

• Sept. 16-21. Zogby Interactive Battleground States Poll. Green 45.7 percent to Doyle 44.4 percent and Doyle 46.7 percent to Walker 44.3 percent. Both in the margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

• Oct. 2-4. Wisconsin Policy Research Institute Inc. (Conservative-learning think tank). Doyle 46 percent to 33 percent over Green, and 50 percent to 31 percent over Walker. Doyle's approval rating was 46 percent.

• Oct. 14-Oct. 16. SurveyUSA poll. Doyle's approval rating was 46 percent. Didn't test candidate matchups.

• Oct. 21-Nov. 11. Wisconsin Public Radio and St. Norbert College poll. Doyle 45 percent-32 percent over Green and 46 percent-31 percent over Walker. Margin of error 5 percentage points. Doyle's approval rating was 64 percent.

• Oct. 25-31. Zogby Interactive Battleground States poll. Walker 46.4 percent to Doyle's 46.3 percent. Doyle 47.2 percent to Green 46.9 percent. All candidates were within the margin of error of 3.8 percent.

• Nov. 11-13. Conservative-leaning Strategic Vision Inc., Doyle 47 percent-44 percent against Green (in the three percentage point margin of error) and Doyle 46 percent-40 percent against Walker.

One conclusion, missed by mainstream media, can be consistently drawn: Doyle is polling poorly, no matter how you look at it.

McBride, a former newspaper reporter and current blogger, is married to Waukesha County DA Paul Bucher -- a candidate for state attorney general -- and helped the Vrakas campaign.

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