So, how likely is it that Tom Barrett will lose?

He will probably win. However, Barrett’s less-than-50-percent primary showing did reveal some weakness, and that provides challenger Bob Donovan with at least an opportunity. Barrett won a much higher percentage in his previous primary – over 80 percent – against weaker challengers.

This race is shaping up to be more like his first contest in 2004, when Barrett, not yet an incumbent, didn’t win the primary (and was below 50 percent) before beating Acting Mayor Marvin Pratt 54-46 percent. Maybe these results will be similar.

There are signs that Barrett knows he’s got cracks in the armor: He’s running cheap-shot attack ads against Donovan, the South Side alderman whose outsider-styled anger might have some appeal in this oddly angry anti-establishment season.

Barrett’s acting worried, although history is on his side. You have to go back to 1940 to find a Milwaukee mayoral incumbent tossed from office unless you count Pratt as acting mayor.  

So why should Barrett be worried? An analysis of ward voting data shows he basically lost the South Side in the primary. Challengers combined to earn more votes in the city overall, and he’s probably worried about how the GOP presidential primary will jack up Donovan turnout in April.

Donovan also hits on themes that energize some voters, such as crime and the streetcar. It’s interesting Barrett’s radio attack ads don’t discuss the issues. In the primary, Barrett had 46 percent, while Donovan had 32 percent, Ald. Joe Davis had 18 percent, and James Methu, 2.68 percent. Davis, of course, has since endorsed Donovan, although Methu and other African-American leaders have supported Barrett.

I’ve heard Barrett’s personal attack ads against Donovan on conservative talk radio, and interestingly, Barrett’s not bringing up Donovan’s old bathroom ticket at UWM. Rather, he’s tossing other mud at Donovan that isn’t very fair; for example, the ad raises a thrown out indictment (Donovan did pay a fine).

There was also a 2008 incident in which Donovan was decked by what the newspaper called "an apparently drunken man who had urinated in front of a grocery store in Donovan’s district." Donovan said he was trying to move the man away from the store by grabbing his coat sleeve when the man swung. Donovan called police. I fail to see how this incident says anything awful about Donovan. Pretty weak shot.

It’s an odd choice to run these ads on talk radio. Does Barrett think he has a chance of flipping Charlie Sykes’ listeners into his column? Really? Why does he think he needs to try? Perhaps it’s just to counter the attack ads running against him from a group aligned with conservatives. Of course, a multi-prong strategy never hurts, and he’s got a lot of money he can spend.

Barrett’s likely worried about South Side turnout being even higher than normal, since he seems to have lost many of those voters; nationally, Republican primary turnout has outpaced Democratic.

The Pew Research Center says turnout in the first 12 primaries was 17.3 percent for Republicans but only 11.7 percent for Democrats. Republican turnout is the highest since 1980.

Why? Obviously, the Trump factor and party infighting. Wouldn’t it be weird if the "Trump factor" helped defeat Barrett?

Bernie Sanders’ surprise upset in Michigan looked to help Barrett, though, in the turnout arena, although that's now mitigated by Bernie's losses on Tuesday, with experts now saying that Hillary's nomination seems a lock. He benefits from an unsettled field, not a Hillary sure thing, so Bernie voters turn out. Thus, Hillary's sweep through five states on Tuesday could tamp down Democratic turnout more in Wisconsin.

On the other hand, the Republican side remains bitterly contested despite Marco Rubio dropping out on Tuesday, with John Kasich winning his home state of Ohio – the Midwestern governor might play in Wisconsin – Ted Cruz still somewhat in the game and talk of an open convention. And some people on the right may just want to cast their opposition to a Trump nomination by coming out to vote. That helps Donovan.

At the first debate between Barrett and Donovan, Donovan accused Barrett of accusing him of racism. Allegations of racism could be strategically designed to keep Donovan from getting some of the North Side Davis votes, which would be even more necessary for Barrett to secure with sky high turnout among Donovan's voting base. It's telling that Barrett seems to be running a campaign focused on attacking Donovan's character versus running more squarely on the issues and what he's done for the city (other than Downtown, anyway). I think candidates do that when they are at least somewhat worried.

How effective will Barrett’s talk radio attack ads be, anyway? Sykes and Belling endlessly talk about how bad Barrett is, negating them. Barrett ties Donovan to Trump and Scott Walker. This might work with East Side liberals, but people who listen to talk radio? They might think great! The problem for Donovan, however, is what is he doing to gain North Side votes? He seems to be largely fending off Barrett attacks and feuding with the newspaper.

The other sign that Barrett is worried: Barack Obama flew into town (yeah, supposedly for health care) and held a rally with Barrett. The South Side locale was interesting because this is where Barrett is suddenly weak. The incumbent isn’t selling south of I-94. Bring in the president.

This is not particularly surprising because Donovan is a South Side alderman, but the distribution of Barrett and Donovan votes is interesting. I requested the ward-by-ward tallies from the City. Methu won no wards.

There are two Milwaukees in some ways, and the city’s racial divides persist. Davis, who is African-American, did not win a single South Side ward.

But the reverse is almost true, and this underscores Donovan’s challenges, and that’s why I’d still favor Barrett to win. Davis and Barrett divided the many wards north of I-94 (with Barrett doing better overall).

Donovan played slightly stronger on the North Side than Barrett played on the South Side, but that isn’t saying much. Neither really did well in those areas. Donovan’s hope is that Davis voters will shift to him, but despite concerns about crime and Davis’ endorsement, that doesn’t seem like anything close to a sure thing.

Davis won 46 wards outright, mostly on the north and northwest side. He tied with Barrett in five more. Donovan won 97 wards, tying with Barrett in three more. About 19 of those were not South Side wards; they were near Downtown or north.

Davis didn’t play east or south. Barrett does well along the lake. Donovan does his best outside the South Side on the northwestern edge of the city.

Barrett won 171 wards. However, not all of those were high-turnout wards. Barrett tied with either Davis or Donovan in seven others.

Less than 20 percent of the wards that Barrett won were on the South Side (he tied in two others).

Put another way, Donovan won more than twice as many South Side wards as Barrett. In the end, two things will be determinative: Who turns out and to what degree, as well as whether Donovan can get any more play north of Downtown. It's hard to see Barrett getting more play down south at this point.