The Green Bay Packers had a 12-point lead with four minutes left on Sunday against a Seattle offense that, to that point, had not scored a touchdown and turned the ball over four times.
After the punt, Russell Wilson and his minuscule quarterback rating had 3:52 to work try and score twice.
I had my flight to Phoenix for Super Bowl XLIX and eight days of car rental all but booked – I only had to hit "confirm."
In hindsight, so many things went wrong.
But really, the Packers had done so many things correctly to that point. It’s why the team that was a touchdown underdog was suddenly up by two scores.
Expectations had changed through 56 minutes of game play.
Going in, I thought the Packers would lose close, and late. But with four minutes left, I expected them to win.
Again, what happened?
Let’s take a look at this in a few ways.
Follow the money
On one hand, the two players the Packers rely on offensively didn’t play well when it mattered most. Ted Thompson has built a young roster around his quarterback, and really, only two players on that offense are paid like stars – Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson.
And on Sunday, those two players didn’t help their team win the game.
Aaron Rodgers ($17.5 million via Spotrac)
If you read my column on Thursday, you knew the Packers were more even match with Seattle than many thought.
But you also would’ve known Rodgers was going to struggle in the Pacific Northwest. History said he would.
And, he did.
The likely league most valuable player went 19 for 34 (56 percent) for 178 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and a rating of 55.8. He averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt and his career record in the postseason fell to 6-5 as a starter.
Without the wildcard run in 2010, he is 2-5 (one win being at home over a Joe Webb-led Minnesota Vikings squad in 2012) and three "one-and-done’s."
In his two NFC Championship appearances – both on the road – Rodgers has posted ratings of 55.4 and 55.8 while throwing one touchdown against four interceptions.
If Peyton Manning gets ripped for all of his one-and-done’s as much as he is praise for his regular season success and one Super Bowl win, Rodgers deserves to be looked at through the same magnifying glass.
Jordy Nelson ($5.9 million)
In his second year as the team’s clear No. 1 wide receiver, and his first after signing a 4-year, $39 million extension, Nelson finished the playoffs with just seven catches for 93 yards. He did not bring in a touchdown.
Since the Super Bowl – arguably his coming out party with a 9-catch, 140-yard performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers – Nelson has caught 25 passes in six playoff games for 291 yards and just one touchdown.
Nelson had a couple of drops on Sunday, and on 2nd-and-goal from the Seattle 6-yard line in the first quarter, Nelson and Rodgers couldn’t connect when the receiver was wide open in the end zone. The series resulted in a second Mason Crosby field goal and a 6-0 lead instead of a 13-0 advantage.
Believe it or not, that’s it as far as big money makers on offense for the Packers.
The next-highest paid offensive players are guards Josh Sitton ($6.4 million) and T.J. Lang ($5.1) and then right tackle Bryan Bulaga ($3.8) followed by kicker Mason Crosby ($3.4).
Soon to be free agent Randall Cobb made just over $1 million this year.
Looking back, perhaps that’s part of the problem with the Packers’ offense in key playoff situations.
Morgan Burnett’s slide
In the moment, someone I was with said "Why did he fall down?"
In the moment, I didn’t think it was a bad decision.
Aaron Rodgers would have the ball with four minutes left. Did I think the Packers would salt the game away like they did against Dallas the week before? No, but I expected them to either get into field goal range, or run two minutes off the clock.
Obviously neither happened, and Burnett’s decision loomed large after the fact.
#Packers S Morgan Burnett said he doesn't regret anything about the INT. Said he saw the "no mas" sign from Peppers and went down.
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) January 19, 2015
Brad Jones
Of course.
Not a single Packers fan across the country is reading Robert Klemko’s breakdown of the Seahawks’ fake field goal for a touchdown and seeing that the only reason it was called was because Brad Jones was on the field.
Now, in fairness, Klemko doesn’t say directly Jones was "reckless" on that play, but the implication is there, since the play was run as called and a touchdown ensued. This, despite the fact Jones forced a key special teams turnover earlier in the game.
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Clay Matthews in coverage
I wrote it, so I’m going to stick with the fact that the 44 seconds it took the Seahawks to take the lead Sunday ranks up there with 4th-and-26, but 3rd-and-19 was pretty big, too. It’s the play that set up the fake field goal, and it was Russell Wilson finding Doug Baldwin for 25 yards.
A couple of things there.
Why was Clay Matthews being asked to be out in coverage and get a proper jam? Who knows. Matthews is developing a quick reputation of hitting players in the head, and while you don’t plan for that as a coach, you have to think he won’t make the right decision in space.
So, Matthews did hit Baldwin in the face – a penalty that was called and declined. So even if Baldwin didn’t break free of Matthews and catch the ball, it would’ve been a 5-yard penalty and an automatic first down.
But, 25 yards is better than five, and the big gain helped set up the Seahawks’ first touchdown. Huge.
Be afraid of the one-armed man
The first play of the fourth quarter could’ve – should’ve – swung the game even further in the Packers favor as they led 16-7 and were starting a drive that eventually led to a Mason Crosby field goal.
On that play, as Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor converged on James Starks to push him out of bounds after a 32-yard run, Sherman’s left elbow was caught in an odd position, and he was clearly hurt after that play.
Yet Sherman wasn’t forced to make a tackle until 26 seconds remained in the game when Jordy Nelson caught a 6-yard pass from Aaron Rodgers to set up Crosby’s game-tying field goal.
I believe Randall Cobb’s first half touchdown was credited as being "against" Sherman since he was in the vicinity, but the corner was rarely tested, especially after his athletic interception of Rodgers in the first half.
Clearly compromised, the Rodgers never chose to test just how hurt Sherman was. It could’ve made the difference in the fourth quarter.
Looking ahead
Really, this team is set for 2015.
The decision on Cobb will be a big one, of course.
For all of the growth Davante Adams showed this year as a rookie,
I don’t think Mike McCarthy or Rodgers would be comfortable with him sliding into the No. 2 position behind Nelson.
If a contract can’t be worked out (which I believe it will), the projected franchise tag for a wide receiver in 2015 will be around
$13 million dollars.
After that, the Packers have decisions to make on 31-year-old
corner Tramon Williams (right), 28-year-old defensive tackle B.J. Raj, Bulaga (who is injury plagued but just 25) and defensive tackle Letroy Guion.
Other free agents like Davon House, Sean Richardson, Don Barclay, John Kuhn, Matt Flynn, Jarrett Bush and Jamari Lattimore are replaceable, at least in the Packers eyes, if they don’t agree to team- friendly terms.
The last word
Josh Sitton: "It feels like a waste of seven, eight months. I'd rather have not even made the playoffs."
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) January 19, 2015
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Jim Owczarski is an award-winning sports journalist and comes to Milwaukee by way of the Chicago Sun-Times Media Network.
A three-year Wisconsin resident who has considered Milwaukee a second home for the better part of seven years, he brings to the market experience covering nearly all major and college sports.
To this point in his career, he has been awarded six national Associated Press Sports Editors awards for investigative reporting, feature writing, breaking news and projects. He is also a four-time nominee for the prestigious Peter J. Lisagor Awards for Exemplary Journalism, presented by the Chicago Headline Club, and is a two-time winner for Best Sports Story. He has also won numerous other Illinois Press Association, Illinois Associated Press and Northern Illinois Newspaper Association awards.
Jim's career started in earnest as a North Central College (Naperville, Ill.) senior in 2002 when he received a Richter Fellowship to cover the Chicago White Sox in spring training. He was hired by the Naperville Sun in 2003 and moved on to the Aurora Beacon News in 2007 before joining OnMilwaukee.com.
In that time, he has covered the events, news and personalities that make up the PGA Tour, LPGA Tour, Major League Baseball, the National Football League, the National Hockey League, NCAA football, baseball and men's and women's basketball as well as boxing, mixed martial arts and various U.S. Olympic teams.
Golf aficionados who venture into Illinois have also read Jim in GOLF Chicago Magazine as well as the Chicago District Golfer and Illinois Golfer magazines.