I laugh every time I see a new national poll that reports that Donald Trump is leading the GOP pack in the contest to be president. There’s just something rather entertaining about a megalomaniac with a bad combover making the political and media elites break into a cold sweat.

Therein lies part of his appeal in some corners. The elites that don’t like him have zero popularity rating with the American public (and even less on the right). Admit it: Even if you detest Trump, you wouldn’t mind watching him in a debate. That would probably be the first debate they could make a profit on by marketing it on pay-per-view.

Despite the fact that he’s already uttered a bunch of nutty statements, and despite the fact that the media’s done its best to paint him as a circus act (complete with bright red clown nose on the cover of one Manhattan tabloid newspaper), and despite the fact that party insiders want him to fall off the planet (as in yesterday), Trump continues to ascend in the polls. In one recent national poll, he came in first, continuing a polling upward trend.

All of the other candidates have started trying to one-up each other now in their mad rush to burst the Trump balloon (he does make it easier. Seriously, of all the things to bash, he picks the war record of a hero who was tortured in a Hanoi prison? Not to mention the birther nonsense). It was telling that GOP chairman Reince Priebus had a long phone conversation with Trump and (until the McCain comments anyway) was trying to telegraph some respect (and urge some restraint). You can almost hear Reince thinking, "We actually might end up stuck with this guy. OMG." 

Trump claims he actually said several times that McCain was a war hero. Contextually, is another story, though. He also said at one point, "He's a war hero, because he was captured, okay? I believe, perhaps, he's a war hero." You can read the full exchange here. Trump also claimed on Twitter of the Priebus phone call: "Totally false reporting on my call with @ReincePriebus. He called me, 10 minutes, said I hit a ‘nerve,’ doing well, end!" 

Still, it will be interesting to see whether Trump has just jumped the shark with his McCain nonsense. The next few polls will be telling. But I think his opponents take a big risk by underestimating Trump’s appeal.

Hillary, meanwhile, is just trying to stay out of the fray, let the GOP eat its own and rope off the press so she doesn’t have to say anything remotely controversial.

So, here are 10 reasons why Donald Trump could be president or at least the GOP nominee (and three reasons why he won’t):

1. He's the ultimate political outsider

All of the candidates try playing this card (except for Hillary because as the wife of a former president and former cabinet official herself, it’s not remotely plausible for her to do so). Walker’s trying it; Perry is. They all do, if they’re not a senator, that is. Railing on Washington is practically every other sentence in Walker’s speeches. There’s a reason for this. Congress’ popularity ratings are always in the basement, and railing at the feds is even more popular on the "anti-big government right." Trump, who has never held political office, makes the supposedly anti-government types with their RNC connections and big donors look like insiders to the Tea Party and Perot voter types. When the media and establishment bash Trump (no matter how deserved), he looks even more like the ultimate political outsider. It’s harder to credibly rail against government when it’s all you’ve got on your resume.

2. He can fund his own campaign

Voters don’t like big money in politics. While the other candidates pander and raise away, Trump has his own campaign stash. He’s untethered from special interests and can govern solely by his own conscience (however flawed that may be). And he’s got a lot to spend, whereas others may struggle with sluggish fundraising.

3. He's a celebrity

In America, that matters. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jesse "the Body" Ventura, and, of course, Ronald Reagan paved the way. In America, like it or not, celebrities are our royalty. Here’s what celebrity really gets Trump: Name recognition and branding. It costs untold millions for a candidate to brand himself or herself on a national scale. National stage newbies on the right like Walker face the added challenge of avoiding negative definition by the mainstream media before they can define themselves (he’s a pandering flip flopper who won’t answer questions or he’s a nutty right winger on social issues – take your pick at the narrative the media are trying to attach to the Wisconsin governor). Walker is learning the hard way that conservative media on a national scale is not big and powerful enough to run a campaign by using traditional media as a foil and counting on conservative media to unspool a counter narrative in a turn-out-the-base strategy (like he’s done in Wisconsin.) Unless you’re Trump. Trump defined himself using the media’s entertainment platforms, so it’s harder for their political types to convince people he’s not what they saw on "The Apprentice." Seriously. Not sure what people would think of Melania as First Lady, though.

4. The media hates him

The media wants to define Trump as a nutcase joke with no chance to be president. Of late, the narrative on cable news has been, "Should the media take Trump seriously?" By that they mean, "This nut might really have a chance to be president; we better start dismantling his record." Trump is crazy like a fox. He is ginning up the media war because he knows it helps him with the GOP base, which sees the "mainstream media" as liberal and detests the arrogance of elite beltway types deciding who’s not a "viable" candidate. The caveat here is if they find stuff now that they’re going to be more aggressively hunting (like his student draft deferments).

5. Lack of a record trail

While the media paws through government candidates’ emails and votes (and flip flops!) or social conservative statements (Rick Perry opposing gay Boy Scout troop leaders, for example), Trump’s records are private because he didn’t work in government, so he can release what he chooses to and claim he’s worth $10 billion with scant ability for reporters to check it all. Although he’s shot his mouth off publicly for years, he doesn’t have a record of votes and positions to explain (or a budget deficit). Rhetorical positions are rather easy; the actual business of governing gets a lot messier (as Walker found out when his tax cuts led to revenue drops that helped create a budget mess). Trump doesn’t have jobs numbers or other stuff like that to explain.

6. He's a businessman

This theme worked for Ron Johnson (last time, anyway). Americans are worried about the economy, so a successful self-made businessman seems appealing. There are limits to this appeal, as Mitt Romney found out. But it’s a better selling point than, "I’ve worked in government literally my entire life." The guy we saw on "The Apprentice" cut through the crap and seemed extremely smart about business. Yeah, he’s kind of a sarcastic, nasty guy, but self-made billionaires aren’t usually the product of niceties and weakness. In that way, Trump is seizing naturally on Republicanism’s prevailing themes: The anti-government and anti-media stuff, but also the "government needs to be run like a business stuff." Trump seems very '80s (the affluent '80s, full of American exceptionalism, Wall Street and ego, that is. You know, when we didn’t worry about our paychecks so much).  

7. He's brash and tough

Heck, he’s "unintimidated." He’s kind of stolen Walker’s campaign theme. Refusing to answer questions or obfuscating answers (most recently on gay Boy Scout troop leaders) and switching positions is making it harder for Walker to convince people he’s the unintimidated guy in the race. That’s especially true when there’s a guy saying brasher things right next to him. President Obama has been frustrating as a president in part because his sweeping oratory as a candidate has morphed into the essential truth of the man: He’s actually aloof and a bit checked out. People in America like a big, brash personality (think Clint Eastwood or the cowboy ethos).

8. Immigration 

Trump has gone way too far with this rhetoric. His choice of phraseology has made it sound like he is saying all Mexicans are rapists and criminals, and he comes across as dehumanizing people based on their ethnicity. I find this unseemly and wrong. However, he has tapped into a frustration on the right over our messed up immigration system and what some believe is a reluctance to talk about that anymore. All Mexican immigrants are not criminals, to state the obvious. However, a segment of illegal immigrants do commit crimes here (just as a segment of American citizens do commit crimes). Some people wonder why talking about that aspect of the issue is suddenly taboo. By tackling a topic the others don’t want to talk about anymore, Trump is differentiating himself with a corner of the base. Then, the world’s largest drug kingpin, El Chapo, started threatening Trump on Twitter. That didn’t hurt. Having a disreputable foil rarely does.

9. "You're fired."

Reagan might have fired the air traffic controllers, as Walker reminds us every two seconds, but Trump’s got the signature tag line. As a visceral instinct, it would be enjoyable to see Trump turn that wrath on, say, ISIS. "You’re fired," he might gruffly snarl, as he makes them pay. OK, not really. But that single tag line (which every American knows) brands Trump as a no nonsense guy who won’t take any crap. That’s pretty appealing to some people in a scarier world with terrorists beheading Americans on TV, mass shooters slaying churchgoers and American cities burning on the television. Mark my words: Many Americans will gravitate to a stronger, protector style personality this time.

10. The general weakness of the opposition

Every single person in the GOP field has problems. Walker is holding his own, but his equivocating on the campaign trail is a problem, and it doesn’t sound like his fundraising is setting off fireworks. And there’s Wisconsin’s jobs numbers. Bush is a Bush. Rubio and Jindal seem young and more like VP material. Cruz has narrow appeal. Perry, Huckabee, and Christie aren’t going anywhere. Where’s Rand these days? (he seems too isolationist in a world with ISIS in it, anyway). Hillary? Well, she’s a different story.

But as for the three reasons why Trump won’t be president?

1. The Latino vote

This is a country with changing demographics. Trump’s outlandish and generalizing rhetoric has pretty much ensured he won’t get much of the Latino vote. This could really matter in close states with Latino populations like New Mexico, Florida and Colorado. Priebus is smart, and knows this. It’s why he telephoned Trump to ask him to dial it down. The GOP needs someone who can expand the Romney map. It’s not Reagan’s America anymore.

2. His own mouth

It seems like there is a cylinder misfiring in the Trump cranium. It’s one thing to be brash. It’s another thing to be downright mean. It’s one thing to "say it like it is." It’s another thing altogether to sound like a crazy nutcase. A few more ridiculous comments like "McCain isn’t a war hero because he was captured" or "maybe Obama wasn’t born in America," and voters with any sense are going to say, "It would be really frightening to let this guy within a mile of the nuclear button." Angering veterans? Not smart. If Trump continues shooting his mouth off this way, people are going to decide that, unscripted and uncontrolled by producers, this is a guy with more than just a combover – he’s got a tinfoil hat.

3. Hillary

Despite, Benghazi, all those secret emails, Bill’s dramas and her own political ambitions, it feels like hers to lose. Trump’s strategy has more success potential in a primary than a general election. She will be tough to beat. She also benefits from not having a serious primary opponent. And if Trump starts badgering her in his typical uncouth way, it could backfire big-time.