To understand why Gov. Scott Walker suddenly dropped out of the presidential race tonight – in a five-minute, downcast news conference without questions – you only have to look back at what he did in the 2006 gubernatorial primary.

Walker was running against another Republican, then-Congressman Mark Green. I saw them speak in person many times as they went from event-to-event throughout the GOP primary trail. They seemed neck-and-neck for a time, but then things changed. Green seemed to have more of the party insiders, the old Tommy Thompson network in particular. Most critically, he suddenly seemed to have a big financial edge. It was also an awful year for Republicans (remember Mark Foley?). The state election was basically nationalized, and Jim Doyle was looking harder and harder (although not impossible) to defeat.

Walker, instead of fighting to the bitter end and creating a bloodletting GOP primary, instead quit. He quit with class, he quit with grace and he quit without damaging his brand before it was absolutely essential to quit. He still had a chance, but he made the pragmatic call. He also made a trove of contacts throughout the state that he used the next time around, including a donor base he could tap.

This worked. Walker did in fact live to see another day – and Green endorsed him when he did. People appreciated that he spared the party ugly infighting. Green lost – too bad; he was a class act who would have made a great governor – and Walker became the buyer’s remorse, the presumptive guy next time around. The rest is history.

You can see evidence of the same strategic thinking in this decision too. Rather than bitterly battling to the utter end and keep taking it on the chops, Walker is making a pragmatic and early choice. If you’re being run out of town, lead the parade. Furthermore, he’s trying to position himself again as a guy doing it for the good of the party.

With the hand he was dealt – and to some degree created himself through missteps – I strongly believe Walker made the smart decision here, and his press conference was about as effective as one can be in any such situation. It was smart, also, not to drone on and on or allow questions. By keeping it short, he will increase the chances of controlling the ultimate narrative and message.

That being said, Walker trashed Donald Trump – without using his name – and painted his decision as one driven by the party’s best interests instead of something he had to do because donors were fleeing, he was down to virtually 0 percent in the latest polls (ouch) and he seemed only slightly more present than a potted plant in the last debate. 

After referencing Ronald Reagan (yes, again) and outlining what he called the "basics of our party," such as believing in the "dignity of work" (persuasive), Walker said he was suspending his campaign because he was helping to "clear the field in this race so a positive conservative message can rise to the top." He said that he hopes a smaller field would help GOP voters consolidate around a "positive conservative alternative to the current frontrunner." 

That’s the ding at Trump. He lamented the negative direction the debate has turned. For his part, a half hour before the Walker announcement, Trump tweeted praise for Walker, saying he’s a nice guy; it will be interesting to see how Trump responds now. He might decide it’s not worth dinging a guy back who just quit, but then again, it’s Trump.

Walker painting himself as the optimistic, positive guy opposed to the negative divisive types is a little rich coming from an extraordinarily divisive governor who defined himself here by finding a foil – so called "greedy" public workers, your kid’s teacher, the state’s iconic university system, the "mainstream media" and liberals. Predictably, the DNC whipped out a statement reminding people of such.

But Walker has a point. Whether it’s the headlines about Ben Carson discussing not wanting a Muslim as president or Trump dissecting the electability of Carly Fiorina’s face, this campaign season has increasingly focused on the trivial, the nasty and the demonizing. This gave the more understated Walker (who wields policies against foes more than words) a chance to say that he has to do the right thing for the party and help people consolidate around someone who isn’t going to play that way (Rubio? Bush?). Walker then urged other candidates to do the same.

Of course, in all honesty, Walker doesn’t have much support to offer others. Normally, when someone drops out, the media wonders where their supporters will go, but at the tail end here, Walker wasn’t even registering more than half of one percent in the polls. However, there are all those donors. And it does make sense for the non-Trump votes to coalesce for a Trump alternative.

So will this work? 

It’s possible Trump (or someone else) could end up the GOP nominee and lose to Hillary (or Biden). This sets up a still very young Walker in four or eight years to come back and say, "See, you shouldn’t have been distracted by the circus parade. Doesn’t that seem so 2015? Like everyone had a brief loss of sanity? You could have picked me, the boring policy guy who’s actually done stuff. I tried to warn you." It’s not an unappealing message. Unless Trump wins, defeats ISIS, resurrects the national economy and arm wrestles Vlad Putin on national TV – which is possible (if not most likely).

However, Walker faces hurdles now that he didn’t face when he bowed out for Mark Green. There are key differences.

The presidential race has severely damaged his brand in a way the "play nice and never attack each other" Green-Walker primary never did. Frankly, that primary helped build Walker’s brand. This one damaged it. Walker and Green were basically in a race to see who could be kinder to the other. I never once heard them say anything negative about each other.

You don’t get many times to define yourself in politics. I’m not sure Walker started tanking because people were responding to negative messaging from others; I think people stopped being able to tell what Walker believes in because he took so many positions and obfuscated too many answers. What does he stand for? He took too many positions, refused to answer too many questions and seemed to obviously chase Trump’s tail. Beyond Act 10, what was his selling point? He didn’t seem very unintimidated when he wouldn’t answer questions.

As governor here, he hid a lot of his positions from the public, softening them, avoiding them and not always being asked questions about them by a far less aggressive press corps.

The latest Marquette University poll was pretty disastrous for the governor, largely because it showed him bleeding out with Wisconsin independents, about two-thirds of whom said they didn’t like him anymore. Since he has basically no support from Democrats already, he can’t win re-election here without winning some of those independents back. The GOP base still likes him, largely, but we’re not a solidly red state where that’s enough.

That’s just one poll. But it does show the work Walker has cut out for him. He needs to figure out how to win back independents not thrilled he was running for president and not thrilled with this version of Walker, while also not ticking off the GOP base that remains his fan club. 

I think his best bet is to come back here, roll up his shirt sleeves, and get back to work. Get back to work with humility in a way that’s less demonizing and divisive here. Focus not on partisan war games and raw accumulation of power (and issues that cut bad and are bad like gutting open records laws or rewriting the Wisconsin Idea). Focus on the bread-and-butter issues Wisconsinites care about most: job creation, namely, and the economy. Remember that? 

Walker as County Executive had crossover appeal (it’s easy to forget) because he had a strict economic focus in the voters’ minds. He was the tax cutter guy who vowed to clean up the mess. What happened to that? I don’t think people expected him to war with UW and the IRIS program.

Walker should not pull a Sarah Palin and step down to hit the conservative money train circuit. He’s not a big enough of a personality, and she lost something when she relinquished her leadership post to become a celebrity. Walker would be smart to focus on policy. He needs to get through the next governor’s race, but it’s a couple years away, which is useful. People have short memories. 

He needs to articulate very clearly and consistently what he stands for here, and then do it. Stop sandbagging the Wisconsin electorate with huge reforms he doesn’t prepare them for and doesn’t run on. We have a two-year budget so he has a breather from that conflict for some time. People will respect the humility. I am reminded of the man in the arena quote: Say what you want about Walker, but you have to give him some credit for getting in it. 

I think the other very real possibility here is that Walker is trying to preserve his viability for a GOP cabinet post – although he just nuked any options of becoming Trump’s Labor Secretary ... half kidding. He can also perhaps make the eventual nominee viable in Wisconsin. 

Is Walker an ideologue? For all he talks about Reagan, it’s tempting to argue so. I think he’s first and foremost a political strategist, though, who’s always dreamed of becoming president and truly believes he will be some day. Even Act 10 was designed to take a page from Reagan for some future strategic narrative. It’s just that he realizes now that the day will not be soon.

This was the best decision a political strategist could make, and it was delivered with the best possible messaging.