The Milwaukee Brewers continue their final road trip of the regular season with a three-game stop in St. Louis for a matchup with the rival Cardinals. But while many playoff hopefuls are currently trying to sort out their playoff rotation, the Brewers have thrown a wrench into their roster during final week of the year.

Instead of sticking with the scheduled Chase Anderson, manager Craig Counsell has tabbed reliever Dan Jennings to take the ball in Monday’s opener. Anderson will still be available out of the bullpen against the Cards.

It has become somewhat of a trend to roll out a reliever to open a game, something Tampa Bay popularized throughout the season. While starters carry much more value due to their ability to work deeper into games, relievers also present more matchup problems that can be exploited.

In Jennings’ case, the southpaw has been quite good against left-hand hitters this year, holding them to a paltry .575 OPS and just five extra-base hits. St. Louis’ best bat, lefty Matt Carpenter, who will likely lead off on Monday night, has still posted good numbers against left-handed pitchers, yet they are nowhere hear the damage he has done against righties. Jennings may have to face a few righties as well, but he is much more likely to put away Carpenter than Anderson.

Anderson has fared well against St. Louis throughout his career, sporting a 3.07 ERA in 11 starts against the Cardinals and a 2.67 ERA at Busch Stadium. But he has largely disappointed throughout 2018. His ERA is over a run worse than last year’s mark, and even that number is slightly misleading. Anderson has posted a 5.22 FIP (fielding independent pitching measures the outcomes a pitcher can truly control – strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches and home runs allowed), which is by far the worst figure among qualified NL starters. He doesn’t even provide quantity anymore, as he has failed completed more than five innings in nearly a month.

Toss in Anderson’s disastrous first inning numbers (6.30 ERA), and it becomes clear why Counsell wanted to make a change to start the St. Louis series. When the Brewers are tied or leading after the first inning, they are 77-47 this season; when they are trailing after the first frame, they are just 12-20. In Anderson’s last start, the Cincinnati Reds scratched across a run to start the game, and Milwaukee could never catch up.

The first game of this Cardinals series is critical. If the Crew can tally a win, they will be three games clear of St. Louis and breathing much easier as they try to hunt down the division-leading Cubs. However, a loss on Monday not only puts the NL Central out of reach, but also brings any playoff spot in question. Anderson has put his teammates behind the eight ball all year long, which is something Milwaukee cannot afford in the biggest series of the year.

Now, that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks to starting Jennings. While Jennings has been solid this year, he is no Josh Hader and he isn’t guaranteed to put up a zero. And while Carpenter has been worse against lefties this year, the Cardinals as team have been hit southpaws better than righties. Jennings might not be long for this game if Carpenter works his way on base.

Slotting Jennings in over Anderson also doesn’t necessarily mean anything for October. The Brewers’ have held their rotation together with duct tape and melted cheese all year long, but the results have been mostly solid. Jhoulys Chacin is lined up for the potential Wild Card game, Wade Miley has been hot since the All-Star break and Gio Gonzalez has put together some nice outings since coming over from Washington. Those three arms deserve to start in the postseason, albeit with an extremely short leash.

Counsell has monitored his starters very closely all year long, so the bullpen is used to getting anywhere from 15-18 outs in a game. Getting 27 outs from your pen is a completely different animal though. While managers can use relievers to find favorable matchups, counting on seven players to pitch on their A-game is a tall task. Eventually, someone is going to crack. Milwaukee will be better off getting four or five innings of from a starter – as long as they are productive innings – rather than trying to push through with a bevy of relievers for the entirety of the ball game.

Bullpen management has become paramount in the postseason, and Counsell has prepared himself well throughout 2018. Even though Jennings’ start against the Cardinals on Monday doesn’t mean the Brewers will be using relievers to open playoff games, it does indicate an all-hands on-deck approach for the biggest situations. Counsell should – and likely will – ride his starters as long as he can, but he will certainly make sure to go to the bullpen one out too early rather than one out too late.

Strap in, Brewers fans. If Counsell is already yanking starters, then it is guaranteed to be a nerve-wracking ride into October.