While the Brewers-Blue Jays trade last week was actually a five-player deal (Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim to Toronto; Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson to Milwaukee), it was essentially a 1-for-1 swap as far as the 2006 season is concerned. Yes, Gross may latch on in Milwaukee as the fourth outfielder next spring, but the immediate success of the deal will be determined by the performances of Overbay and Bush next season.

Opinions vary on dealing Overbay -- he was a fan favorite and a productive hitter for the Crew, on the one hand, but he was standing in Prince Fielder's way at first base (not to mention the completion of the team's ballyhooed youth movement) on the other.

Therefore, the deal is interesting on its face because it involves the future of Fielder -- a prospect that captivates the imagination of most Brewers fans. But the Bush acquisition is also interesting, especially in light of the successful pitching makeovers orchestrated by general manager Doug Melvin and pitching coach Mike Maddux in Milwaukee. With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Bush.

When sizing up a little-known pitcher like Bush, one tends to gravitate toward his most measurable stats, namely wins, losses and ERA. Across parts of two seasons in Toronto, Bush was just 10-15 with a 4.15 ERA. In reality, that's not too bad; A.J. Burnett, who the Jays just signed to a five-year, $55 million deal, is just 49-50 with a 3.73 ERA in his short career. This is not to compare Bush to Burnett -- they're very different pitchers -- but it's a reminder not to get carried away by the mediocre records of young pitchers.

Bush has thrown 234 big league innings, which translates to slightly more than a season's worth of productivity. In those innings, he's struck out 139 and walked 54 while allowing 237 hits. Those numbers translate to 5.35 strikeouts per 9 innings and a 1.24 WHIP. That strikeout ratio would rank Bush near the bottom of the current Brewers staff, but his quality control (just over 2 walks/9 innings) places him behind only Ben Sheets in 2005 WHIP ratings among the current starters.

Unfortunately, Bush appears to be a little wild in the strike zone. He's surrendered a homer every 7.55 innings during his career (31 homers in those 234 IP). Bush will not hang along among his new teammates for that sin, however. Chris Capuano (one per 7.06), Doug Davis (one per 8.56) and Ben Sheets (one per 8.25) all surrendered a lot of homers in 2005. In fact, the Brewers ranked just 10th for fewest HRs allowed in the National League.

When Melvin and Ned Yost took over in Milwaukee, they pledged to build the staff around ground-ball pitchers who would keep the ball in Miller Park. But that philosophy has never really taken root. The team gave up 169 long balls last year, which ranked fourth in the NL Central behind St. Louis (153), Houston (155) and Pittsburgh (162).

At the same time, Miller Park hasn't turned into quite the homer haven it was predicted to be when the stadium was inaugurated. According to ESPN.com park factor stats, Miller Park was only the 18th-friendliest homer-hitting park in baseball last year. Busch Stadium, by contrast, was third, while Wrigley Field was sixth. Surprisingly enough, Minute Maid Park in Houston was just 16th, which could be due to the fact that Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens are often pitching there.

Bush, a righty, tends to get roughed up by lefties. Of the 31 homers he's allowed, 21 were to left-handed hitters; they also bat .278 against him for his career, compared to a .246 mark by righties. There's a lot of left-handed sluggers in the division -- Adam Dunn, Jim Edmonds, Lance Berkman and Ken Griffey, Jr. to name a few -- so this is a concern.

Still, Bush is just 26. And his minor-league numbers suggest that he'll limit the long balls once he gets some more experience. In his AAA career, he surrendered a homer every 13.3 IP (nearly half as much as he's done in the majors), which is akin to Oswalt's 2005 average of 1 per 13.43 IP. There's a big difference between compiling that number in the minors and the majors, but if Bush could get down to one homer every nine or 10 innings, that would be a great start.

So what should you expect from Bush in 2006? Improvement. Bush's 2005 numbers aren't unlike Capuano's 2004 statistics, which preceded a breakout season last year. Capuano was just 6-8 with a 4.99 ERA in 2004, when he allowed 18 homers in 88.1 IP (1 per 4.91 IP). He improved to 18-12, 3.99 and one HR/7.06 IP in 2005.

Will Bush win 18 games for the Brewers in 2006? That's highly unlikely. If he's able to win a starting job out of spring training (and he'll be competing with Rick Helling and probably Ohka for one of two open spots), Maddux could help him win around 10 games next year. If not, he'll probably be a swing guy whose numbers won't really reflect great improvement until 2007. If he manages the former, Brewers fans will have more than just Fielder's homer total to consider when evaluating this trade a year from now.