Let's face it -- the only good day in February is the last one. Especially when you're anxious for the arrival of yet another baseball season.

Milwaukee baseball fans have legitimate reason for optimism in 2001. While the Brewers are unlikely to end an 18-year playoff drought, they'll be failing in front of large gatherings at their new home, Miller Park. And perhaps they won't be failing quite as often as we're used to. At least not if a few of the things listed below actually come to fruition.

1. Ron Belliard in Zubaz: While admittedly a comfortable slack for the portly gentleman, if the Brewers second baseman and lead-off hitter is wearing pants with a draw string away from the diamond, the Brewers can forget improving much on their 13th-place N.L. finish in runs scored (740, 4.56 per game).

At 5-8, 205 (or so), Belliard's effectiveness was clearly limited last year. Reportedly, the 25-year-old (he'll be 26 on April 7) has gotten down to about 195 in winter ball, and Davey Lopes wants him no higher than 192 when the full squad reports to camp Feb. 20. Crew fans shouldn't shrug off the fate of this potentially key cog -- he was second on the team in hits (150) and walks (82) last year and .295 in 1999. He dipped badly late in 2000 -- supposedly from the extra girth -- sliding from .290 in mid-July to an eventual .263.

But here's the deal: Brewers leadoff hitters' last year hit just .244 with a .323 on-base percentage. Yes, that's bad. How bad? Their No. 8 hitters were good enough to reach .254 and .342. Here's hoping we see some button flys on Belliard.

2. Great expectations: Ben and Jeffrey -- I used to consider myself downright prescient for bringing up Ben Sheets while discussing the Brewers' future; now dudes trolling for change on 4th and Wisconsin can tell you his WHIP in AA last year. Sheets is not only considered a lock for the rotation when camp breaks, people are actually expecting him to win some games, too.

Easy, pardner. Jamey Wright, a guy with similar stuff and mound makeup, went just 7-9 last year despite allowing 157 hits in 164.2 IP. So Sheets won't wander in from the Olympics and win 15 games -- or will he? Plenty of baseball scribes love him, and Tommy Lasorda stopped just short of recommending him for the Cardinal College after Sheets won the gold medal game in September. I'm nuts for him, too, but he did go a combined 8-8 in 26 minor league starts last season.

The other new arrival, center fielder Jeffrey Hammonds, arrives with a caveat of expected disappointment. Two factors signal this: first, the Brewers' latest free agent signings have included Jose Hernandez, Sean Berry and Marquis Grissom; and second, Hammonds did most of his damage last year at Coors Field.

Something -- most likely a contrary nature -- lends me to believe Hammonds will surprise, however. A repeat performance of .335-20-106? Not likely. But the mid-.280s with 20 and 85 wouldn't shock me -- if he plays in 135 games.

3. August Zip Codes: Where will Jeromy Burnitz and Marquis Grissom be getting their mail when the NFL exhibition season arrives? If Burnitz is still in Milwaukee, it'll probably mean he's having a bounce-back season at the plate and the team elected to hold on to him for a possible run at the playoffs. If he's gone, GM Dean Taylor is probably thinking about 2002 and beyond. And if anyone out there can be bushwhacked into taking on Grissom's $5 mill per, it could be a sign that Taylor may someday approach Ron Wolf status in the state.

4. 100 Homers from three players: The 3-4-5 hitters in the Milwaukee lineup have delicious possibilities. If Geoff Jenkins (.303-34-94) cuts back from 135 Ks to 110, and if Richie Sexson hits anywhere near .296 in 150 games, and if Burnitz can focus in on baseball for the first three months, the team could well get over 100 homers from three players for the first time since ... ? You guessed it: 1982 (Gorman Thomas-39, Ben Oglivie-34, Cecil Cooper-32; and Robin Yount added 29 for good measure). If so, 10 more wins is as safe a bet as this year's rainout total.

5. Eight is Enough: Jeff D'Amico, Wright and Jimmy Haynes gave the Brewers 81 starts last year, precisely half the team's games. But seven other pitchers started at least four games; that's too many. Hopefully Sheets nails down the fourth slot, but whether it's Kyle Peterson, Paul Rigdon, Allen Levrault (4-1, 2.63 in 12 Venezuelan League starts this winter), Valerio de Los Santos, John Snyder or Jim Slaton, one or two others must fulfill the swing roles at the back of the rotation. If four or five arms are in this mix, that means MLB's second-best bullpen in 2000 is going to get overworked by the All-Star break and/or one of the main horses is hurt. Either way, it spells fourth place.

Only fools prognosticate. But if the Crew can cash in on just a couple of these possibilities, the team's first .500 season since 1992 beckons.